Stars Sky Land Ocean

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IVThe stars

What comes nextif we want it

A million people on Mars. Cities that run on abundant power. A species with a second home.

None of that is fantasy any more; every piece of it has a working prototype and a company behind it. The physics allows it and the engineering is under way. What is genuinely uncertain is not whether it can be done, but whether a civilisation that has stopped believing in its own worth will bother to do it.

Four billion years of climbing, and the next chapter is the first one that is optional. That is the whole reason for the work below.

—What I am building

Rebuild the definition, and the climb resumes.

The bottleneck is not capital, talent or technology. It is that we no longer have a moral case for our own ascent, so the people carrying it work under a cloud and the people funding it can't say why it's good. That case can be made. I am making it.

The books, a public case file and a show, arguing one thing: that the good is ascent, that a morality can be judged by what it does to real people over time, and that a civilisation which believes this again starts building again.

Forthcoming: Ascent, The Ascent of Man and The Ascent of the West. See the library →

Still from the show

Ascent of Man — the show

Not commentary on the week. One idea from the books, argued properly, for people who will never read a book but will watch someone think.

  • Short form, dailyDrawn from that day's writing.
  • Solo essaysOne argument, at length, weekly.
  • The ruleEvery episode comes from the work, never the news.
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—The one thing in the way

Nothing outside us is stopping the climb. We are talking ourselves out of it.

Ask what progress means now and the answer comes back as closing a gap — redistribution, levelling, harm reduction. Under that definition building is suspect, achievement is a debt, and the people carrying the ascent are the ones asked to apologise. A civilisation can believe that for a while and coast on what it already built. It cannot believe it and keep climbing.

That is not a policy problem. It is a definition, and it was settled against us while nobody was arguing about it.

What we were handed

The good is closing the gap. So progress means redistribution, and the ones who build are a problem to manage.

What is true

The good is raising the ceiling. So progress means growth, and the ones who build are doing the good.

—You are here

Right nowthe steepest part of the curve so far

This is the most extraordinary moment to be alive in the entire story, and almost nobody talks about it that way.

Rockets land themselves and fly again. Machines have started to reason. Robots are walking off the factory floor and into ordinary work. The cost of energy and the cost of intelligence are both falling toward the floor at the same time — and those two numbers set the price of everything else humans have ever wanted to do.

Flight became routine

A booster returns to the pad and launches again in weeks. Getting to orbit stopped being an event.

Thinking became cheap

Machines that reason, available to anyone, improving faster than any technology in history.

Hands are next

General-purpose robots turn intelligence into physical work. Everything that gets built gets easier to build.

Ocean3,500,000,000 yrs
Land400,000,000 yrs
Sky120 yrs
Stars60 yrs, and counting

Bars are logarithmic. On a linear scale the last two would not be visible at all.

IIIThe sky

1903twelve seconds, one hundred and twenty feet

A man who was alive for the first flight lived to see the moon.

Two brothers with a bicycle shop got off the ground for twelve seconds. Within a single human lifetime we were crossing oceans in hours and putting people into orbit.

Nothing in nature moved that fast. That acceleration was made, by people who believed that getting better was the point.

IIThe land

400 million yearsfrom the shore to the city

Then something crawled out, and the pace changed.

From the first thing that walked to the first hand that made a tool took hundreds of millions of years. From the first tool to the plough took a few million. From the plough to the city, a few thousand.

Each step made the next one cheaper. That is the shape of the whole story: not a straight line, but a curve that keeps bending upward as capability compounds.

IThe ocean

3.5 billion yearsin the water

For almost the whole story, there was nowhere else to be.

Life began in the sea and stayed there for something like three and a half billion years. Not because it was content, but because leaving was hard. Every generation that pushed further into the shallows was working against a limit that looked permanent.

Nothing about the next step was guaranteed. It was not owed. It was achieved.

A crowd turning their faces up toward the light

Life has been climbing for four billion years.

Out of the water, onto the land, into the air, toward the stars. We are the part of that story that gets to decide whether it continues.

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